FORECAST OF DROUGHT DYNAMICS IN KARAKALPAKSTAN USING MODIS DATA AND THE HURST INDEX

Abstract

Drought is one of the most serious natural phenomena negatively impacting arid regions, including Karakalpakstan in the Aral Sea basin. This study used MODIS remote sensing data (NDVI and EVI) to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and drought in 2015–2024. Changes in vegetation cover were assessed and areas with the most pronounced declines in vegetation indices were identified. It was found that a significant portion of Karakalpakstan is characterized by persistent signs of vegetation degradation, especially in the central and western regions. The results confirm the high effectiveness of MODIS satellite data for monitoring drought conditions and highlight the need to develop adaptation measures in agriculture and water management.